Kansas City @ Jacksonville
The Chiefs run defense has allowed 131 yards per game and six TDs, while the secondary has given up 252.1 yards per game and 13 TDs. The Jaguars run defense has allowed 128.3 yards per game and five TDs, while the secondary has given up 242.4 yards per game and 13 TDs.
Key Injuries
KC: S Jon McGraw (thigh)
JAC: CB Rashean Mathis (finger)
Snapshot of Chiefs
QB Matt Cassel is coming off two disappointing outings in which he has thrown for a combined 283 yards, one TD and three INTs. Four of Cassel’s six opponents rank in the Top 10 in passing yards allowed, while his biggest game came against the 22nd-ranked Dallas Cowboys. The good news is that the Jaguars rank 26th, and Cassel becomes a marginal play with RB Larry Johnson suspended.
Johnson’s 2.7 yards per carry with zero TDs won’t be hard to replace. Jamaal Charles is first in line and has averaged 5.0 yards per carry in limited action thus far. The Jaguars rank 25th against the run, so Charles is worth consideration if you need an RB play this week. Kolby Smith will likely be activated for the game, but Charles comes with the least risk and should see most of the carries.
Dwayne Bowe is the only Chief that should be in your fantasy lineup on a regular basis. He has four TDs in his six starts and is Cassel’s main target. Against the Jaguars’ weak secondary, he’s a strong WR2 play and could improve on the four receptions for 70 yards in the last meeting.
WR Chris Chambers was claimed on waivers and could play a part this week, but keep him out of your lineup until he picks up the offense and earns a big enough role.
Snapshot of Jaguars
In three home starts, QB David Garrard averages 313.3 passing yards with five TDs and three INTs. In road games he averages 165.8 passing yards with no passing TDs and two INTs, although he did score once on the ground. He completed 20-of-27 passes for 218 yards and a TD in the last meeting. Garrard is at home this week against the 28th-ranked Chiefs secondary and should have one of his most productive games of the season.
RB Maurice-Jones Drew gained a career-high 177 rushing yards last week on just eight carries. In two starts since complaining about his role, Jones-Drew has gained 351 yards from scrimmage with five TDs. He has scored in the past two meetings and the Chiefs rank 26th against the run. Jones-Drew is arguably the top RB play of the week.
WRs Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt have both been inconsistent this year, but should be good starts at home. Sims-Walker has played well in four games this season and is the better start. The main worry is that the Jaguars will win easily and control the game on the ground with Jones-Drew, but both starting WRs are capable of producing well against a suspect secondary.
Green Light
QB David Garrard – one of the best opportunities to start him
RB Maurice Jones-Drew – great matchup and likely to see a big workload
RB Jamaal Charles – worth a spot start with Johnson suspended
WR Dwayne Bowe – the main threat for the Chiefs
WR Mike Sims-Walker – the best option in the Jaguars’ passing game
Red Light
QB Matt Cassel – not worth consideration unless you’re 100 percent hurting
WR Chris Chambers – unlikely to see much action until he learns the offense
WR Torry Holt – it’s a favorable matchup, but he’s too inconsistent
Miami @ New England
The Dolphins run defense has allowed 92.4 yards per game and eight TDs, while the secondary has given up 236 yards per game and nine TDs. The Patriots run defense has allowed 109.4 yards per game and one TD, while the secondary has given up 176.3 yards per game and eight TDs.
Key Injuries
MIA: DT Jason Ferguson (elbow), LB Channing Crowder (shoulder)
NE: Tom Brady (right shoulder), RB Sammy Morris (knee), RB Fred Taylor (ankle), WR Randy Moss (shoulder), DE Ty Warren (ankle)
Snapshot of Dolphins
QB Chad Henne is 3-0 against the AFC East with two wins over the New York Jets and one over the Buffalo Bills. He has reached 200 passing yards twice, with just one multiple-TD game. The Dolphins are a run-first team and Henne will hand off for most of the game unless the Patriots take a big lead. The Patriots are ranked fifth against the pass so keep Henne on your bench.
Ronnie Brown ran for 113 yards and four TDs in his last visit to New England. With seven TDs on the year, he’s still the Dolphins’ main threat. Brown has been productive at home this year, but has failed to score in three road games. The Patriots have given up just one TD on the ground all year so while Brown should be in your lineup, temper expectations.
While Ricky Williams has played well in a support role, three of his five TDs came in one game and he is a spot-start at best. Consider him no more than a weak RB3 play.
The receiving corps cannot be trusted from one week to the next and has accounted for just four TDs on the season. With Henne’s passing attempts likely to be limited, don’t consider playing any Dolphin receivers this week.
Snapshot of Patriots
QB Tom Brady seems to have dispelled any fears that he might not be healthy. He averages 301 passing yards over his past three starts, throwing 11 TDs and two INTs over that span. Brady threw three TD passes in the last meeting and completed 21-of-25 passes for 354 yards and six TDs in last year’s home meeting. The Dolphins rank 21st against the pass so Brady is an excellent start on Sunday.
RB Laurence Maroney leads the team with 265 rushing yards with Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris sidelined by injury, but the Patriots remain a pass-first team. Maroney has scored in his past two starts and is a threat to find the end zone again, but don’t expect a huge game against the Dolphins’ strong run defense.
WR Randy Moss has posted three 100-yard games this season with four TDs, but has failed to live up to expectations. He seems to be picking up the pace over the past two games with 13 receptions for 198 yards and three TDs. Moss had a huge game in the last meeting, catching eight passes for 125 yards and three TDs. He’s a must start at home against a suspect secondary.
WR Wes Welker struggled with injury early in the season, but is finally starting to play well. Over the past three games, Welker has 28 receptions for 343 yards and four TDs. He had eight receptions for 120 yards in the last meeting with his former team and he’s a strong play again this week.
Green Light
QB Tom Brady – back to his best
RB Ronnie Brown – a must-start despite the tough matchup
RB Ricky Williams – spot play with six NFL teams on a bye this week
WR Randy Moss – huge game in the last meeting
WR Wes Welker – he’s been a stud over the past three games
Red Light
QB Chad Henne – will hand off for as long as possible and face pressure if asked to pass
Dolphin WRs – too inconsistent to be trusted
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Article first appeared Nov. 6, 2009